Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 38,918
2 Louisiana 38,064
3 Mississippi 36,335
4 South Dakota 35,055
5 Florida 34,686
6 Alabama 34,500
7 Iowa 33,036
8 Tennessee 32,120
9 Arkansas 31,984
10 Arizona 31,426
11 South Carolina 31,290
12 Georgia 30,270
13 Wisconsin 29,451
14 Texas 29,435
15 Idaho 28,801
16 Nebraska 28,653
17 Nevada 28,596
18 Utah 28,224
19 Illinois 26,532
20 Oklahoma 26,241
21 Rhode Island 25,900
22 Missouri 25,440
23 New York 24,886
24 New Jersey 24,631
25 Kansas 24,307
26 Delaware 23,167
27 District of Columbia 22,906
28 North Carolina 22,819
29 Maryland 22,171
30 California 22,028
31 Indiana 21,332
32 Minnesota 20,774
33 Massachusetts 20,541
34 Montana 19,688
35 Kentucky 19,341
36 Virginia 19,089
37 Puerto Rico 17,561
38 Connecticut 17,397
39 New Mexico 16,671
40 Michigan 15,713
41 Alaska 15,403
42 Ohio 15,043
43 Wyoming 14,470
44 Colorado 14,316
45 Pennsylvania 14,255
46 Washington 13,242
47 West Virginia 10,647
48 Hawaii 9,832
49 Oregon 9,136
50 New Hampshire 6,932
51 Maine 4,341
52 Vermont 3,049

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 838
2 South Dakota 786
3 Wisconsin 619
4 Montana 573
5 Idaho 523
6 Nebraska 446
7 Iowa 399
8 Utah 375
9 Missouri 362
10 Rhode Island 359
11 Arkansas 335
12 Wyoming 330
13 Mississippi 326
14 Oklahoma 307
15 Illinois 275
16 New Mexico 253
17 Tennessee 249
18 Kentucky 248
19 Indiana 231
20 Minnesota 216
21 Alaska 210
22 Alabama 209
23 North Carolina 199
24 South Carolina 197
25 Texas 196
26 Puerto Rico 193
27 Kansas 189
28 Michigan 188
29 Nevada 178
30 Colorado 170
31 Louisiana 165
32 Ohio 161
33 West Virginia 148
34 Georgia 141
35 Florida 139
36 Virginia 131
37 Arizona 122
38 Pennsylvania 121
39 Washington 112
40 New Jersey 108
41 Delaware 92
42 Maryland 92
43 Massachusetts 92
44 California 87
45 Oregon 84
46 New York 70
47 District of Columbia 68
48 Connecticut 60
49 Hawaii 58
50 New Hampshire 53
51 Maine 20
52 Vermont 14

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,823
2 New York 1,693
3 Massachusetts 1,403
4 Connecticut 1,273
5 Louisiana 1,227
6 Rhode Island 1,084
7 Mississippi 1,059
8 District of Columbia 904
9 Arizona 795
10 Illinois 741
11 Florida 732
12 Michigan 731
13 South Carolina 700
14 Georgia 689
15 Delaware 678
16 Maryland 666
17 Pennsylvania 663
18 Texas 598
19 Indiana 573
20 Alabama 562
21 Nevada 551
22 Arkansas 545
23 North Dakota 492
24 Iowa 480
25 New Mexico 439
26 Ohio 430
27 California 426
28 Tennessee 415
29 Missouri 412
30 Minnesota 399
31 Virginia 396
32 Colorado 379
33 North Carolina 371
34 South Dakota 343
35 New Hampshire 340
36 Washington 306
37 Kentucky 300
38 Idaho 291
39 Oklahoma 288
40 Kansas 287
41 Nebraska 282
42 Wisconsin 269
43 Puerto Rico 232
44 West Virginia 219
45 Montana 215
46 Utah 165
47 Oregon 145
48 Hawaii 129
49 Maine 107
50 Wyoming 98
51 Vermont 92
52 Alaska 83

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 North Dakota 10
2 Kansas 7
3 Alabama 6
4 Arkansas 6
5 South Dakota 6
6 Florida 5
7 Mississippi 5
8 Montana 5
9 Rhode Island 5
10 Tennessee 4
11 Wisconsin 4
12 Hawaii 3
13 Illinois 3
14 Indiana 3
15 Iowa 3
16 Kentucky 3
17 Minnesota 3
18 Nevada 3
19 North Carolina 3
20 Oklahoma 3
21 South Carolina 3
22 Texas 3
23 Alaska 2
24 California 2
25 Colorado 2
26 Louisiana 2
27 Massachusetts 2
28 Michigan 2
29 Missouri 2
30 Nebraska 2
31 Arizona 1
32 Delaware 1
33 Georgia 1
34 Idaho 1
35 Maryland 1
36 New Hampshire 1
37 New Mexico 1
38 Oregon 1
39 Pennsylvania 1
40 Virginia 1
41 Washington 1
42 West Virginia 1
43 Wyoming 1
44 Connecticut 0
45 District of Columbia 0
46 Maine 0
47 New Jersey 0
48 New York 0
49 Ohio 0
50 Puerto Rico 0
51 Utah 0
52 Vermont 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Lincoln Arkansas 166,001 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 157,514 2 99
Trousdale Tennessee 152,162 3 99
Lafayette Florida 148,896 4 99
Lake Tennessee 135,975 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 44,675 241 92
Richland South Carolina 39,364 362 88
York South Carolina 21,614 1378 56
Orange California 18,321 1654 47
Pierce Washington 11,132 2382 24

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 5,203 1 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 2 99
Emporia city Virginia 4,863 3 99
Galax city Virginia 4,727 4 99
Randolph Georgia 4,279 5 99
Richland South Carolina 621 775 75
Davidson Tennessee 467 1103 64
Orange California 438 1169 62
York South Carolina 320 1483 52
Pierce Washington 266 1667 46

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons